Cesena vs Sampdoria: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cesenavs
SampdoriaThe model puts Cesena at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Cesena are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Sampdoria are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cesena have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sampdoria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cesena have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cesena will be without Piacentini, Klinsmann Jon..
- Sampdoria will be without Nikola Sekulov, Francesco Conti.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Cesena at 37%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Sampdoria at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Cesena is priced at 2.54. The draw is priced at 3.15. Sampdoria is priced at 2.77.
Cesena have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Sampdoria have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cesena have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Sampdoria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cesena or Sampdoria?
Our model rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cesena vs Sampdoria?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 4 Cesena wins, 5 draws, 3 Sampdoria wins.
Match statistics
Cesena
- 1Siano
- 4Castagnetti M.
- 9Shpendi
- 10Pagano R.
- 11Caprini
- 15Ciofi
- 19Zaro G.
- 24Mangraviti
- 25Bisoli D.
- 32Olivieri
- 99Frabotta
- Piacentini (Questionable)
- Klinsmann Jon. (Missing Player)
Sampdoria
- 1Jensen
- 2Di Pardo
- 5Gartenmann
- 7Cicconi
- 9Lauritsen T.
- 10Sinani
- 11Begic T.
- 12Viti M.
- 14Bellemo
- 16Henderson Li.
- 94Esposito
- Nikola Sekulov (2)
- Francesco Conti (2)
League table
Italy. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vicenza Calcio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Mantova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Modena | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Sudtirol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Empoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 | Cesena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Ascoli Calcio 1898 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Pisa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Calcio Padova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Sampdoria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Citta di Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Hellas Verona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Catanzaro 1929 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 15 |  Avellino 1912 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Carrarese Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Benevento Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 19 |  Virtus Entella | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 20 |  Juve Stabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | -2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.