Hellas Verona vs Ascoli Calcio 1898: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hellas Veronavs
Ascoli Calcio 1898The model puts Hellas Verona at 58%. The model leans toward Hellas Verona. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Hellas Verona.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Hellas Verona are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Hellas Verona have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ascoli Calcio 1898 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Hellas Verona will be without Belghali, Mosquera, Peci T., Serdar Su..
- Ascoli Calcio 1898 will be without Manuel Alagna.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Hellas Verona at 58%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Ascoli Calcio 1898 at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Hellas Verona. Hellas Verona is priced at 1.62. The draw is priced at 3.65. Ascoli Calcio 1898 is priced at 5.66.
Hellas Verona have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Ascoli Calcio 1898 have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Hellas Verona have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Ascoli Calcio 1898 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hellas Verona or Ascoli Calcio 1898?
Our model rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Ascoli Calcio 1898?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 6 Hellas Verona wins, 3 draws, 4 Ascoli Calcio 1898 wins.
Match statistics
Hellas Verona
- 1Leali
- 2Oyegoke
- 5Edmundsson A.
- 9Sarr
- 11Companion
- 12Bradaric D.
- 14Rocha Livramento
- 19Slotsager
- 20Kastanos
- 21Harroui
- 24Bernede A.
- Belghali (Questionable)
- Mosquera (Missing Player)
- Peci T. (Missing Player)
- Serdar Su. (Missing Player)
Ascoli Calcio 1898
- 1Vitale S.
- 4Damiani
- 7Silipo
- 11Perciun
- 15D'Uffizi
- 17Guiebre
- 30Curado
- 33Rizzo N.
- 35Gori G.
- 62Миланезе
- 80Corradini
- Manuel Alagna (2)
League table
Italy. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vicenza Calcio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Mantova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Modena | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Sudtirol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Empoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Cesena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Ascoli Calcio 1898 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Pisa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Calcio Padova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Sampdoria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Citta di Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Hellas Verona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Catanzaro 1929 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 15 |  Avellino 1912 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Carrarese Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Benevento Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 19 |  Virtus Entella | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 20 |  Juve Stabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | -2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.