CONCACAF Central American Cup

Antigua GFC vs Real Esteli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Antigua GFCvs

Real Esteli

Our predictionAntigua GFC to win

Model score: Medium · 53/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Antigua GFC at 51%. The model leans toward Antigua GFC. Confidence: medium.

Win probabilities

1 · Antigua GFC51%Draw26%2 · Real Esteli23%

1 · Antigua GFCDraw2 · Real Esteli

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.86+16.1%

1X2Antigua GFC1.81+0.4%

1X2Real Esteli3.88-0.2%

1X2Draw3.44-0.2%

BTTSYes1.81-16.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.27Antigua GFC

0.66Real Esteli

Over 2.5 goals30%

Both teams to score35%

Team strength rating

Antigua GFC

Real Esteli

Most likely scorelines

1-018.5%

0-014.6%

1-112.1%

2-011.8%

0-19.5%

2-17.7%

Recent form

Antigua GFC

Real EsteliWWDDW

Match DNA

Antigua GFC Real Esteli

Key points

Real Esteli have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Antigua GFC is priced at 1.81.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Antigua GFC win1.81Fair

Double chanceAntigua GFC or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	15	10	3
1	19	12	4
2	12	8	3
3	5	3	1
4	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Antigua GFC at 51%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Real Esteli at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Antigua GFC. Antigua GFC is priced at 1.81. The draw is priced at 3.44. Real Esteli is priced at 3.875.

Real Esteli have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Esteli are on 2 wins in a row.

The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 30% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →