Diriangen vs Alajuelense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Diriangenvs
AlajuelenseThe model puts Alajuelense at 59%. The model leans toward Alajuelense. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Diriangen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alajuelense have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Alajuelense is priced at 1.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Diriangen at 18%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Alajuelense at 59%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Alajuelense. Diriangen is priced at 5.12. The draw is priced at 3.96. Alajuelense is priced at 1.53.
Diriangen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Alajuelense have 2 wins in their last 4 matches. Alajuelense are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Diriangen or Alajuelense?
Our model rates Alajuelense as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Diriangen vs Alajuelense?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
League table
CONCACAF Central American Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diriangen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 2 | Alajuelense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  C.D. Luis Angel Firpo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Xelaju | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 5 |  Club Deportivo Plaza Amador | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.