Aral vs Metallurg Bekabad: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aralvs
Metallurg BekabadThe model puts Aral at 54%. The model leans toward Aral. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Aral.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Aral have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Metallurg Bekabad have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Aral is priced at 1.76.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Aral at 54%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Metallurg Bekabad at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward Aral. Aral is priced at 1.76. The draw is priced at 3.52. Metallurg Bekabad is priced at 4.015.
Aral have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Aral are on 5 wins in a row. Metallurg Bekabad have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 72% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aral or Metallurg Bekabad?
Our model rates Aral as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aral vs Metallurg Bekabad?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Uzbekistan. Pro League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 29:8 | 32 |
| 2 |  Kattakurgan | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 17:7 | 27 |
| 3 |  Shurtan Guzar | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18:12 | 26 |
| 4 |  Fergana State University | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21:21 | 22 |
| 5 | Metallurg Bekabad | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30:11 | 21 |
| 6 |  Gazalkent | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24:16 | 21 |
| 7 |  Lochin | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:14 | 21 |
| 8 |  Olimpik MobiUZ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 25:14 | 18 |
| 9 |  Jayxun | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14:18 | 14 |
| 10 |  Yaypan | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 14:23 | 13 |
| 11 |  Respublika FA | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 14:21 | 12 |
| 12 |  Buxdu | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 10:26 | 10 |
| 13 |  Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 7:31 | 4 |
| 14 |  Terdu | 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 9:30 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.