Buxdu vs Shurtan Guzar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Buxduvs
Shurtan GuzarThe model puts Shurtan Guzar at 54%. The model leans toward Shurtan Guzar. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Buxdu have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Shurtan Guzar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Shurtan Guzar is priced at 1.68.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Buxdu at 21%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Shurtan Guzar at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Shurtan Guzar. Buxdu is priced at 4.48. The draw is priced at 3.54. Shurtan Guzar is priced at 1.68.
Buxdu have 2 wins in their last 4 matches. Shurtan Guzar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Buxdu or Shurtan Guzar?
Our model rates Shurtan Guzar as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Buxdu vs Shurtan Guzar?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
League table
Uzbekistan. Pro League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aral | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 29:8 | 32 |
| 2 |  Kattakurgan | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 17:7 | 27 |
| 3 | Shurtan Guzar | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18:12 | 26 |
| 4 |  Fergana State University | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21:21 | 22 |
| 5 |  Metallurg Bekabad | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30:11 | 21 |
| 6 |  Gazalkent | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24:16 | 21 |
| 7 |  Lochin | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:14 | 21 |
| 8 |  Olimpik MobiUZ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 25:14 | 18 |
| 9 |  Jayxun | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14:18 | 14 |
| 10 |  Yaypan | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 14:23 | 13 |
| 11 |  Respublika FA | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 14:21 | 12 |
| 12 | Buxdu | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 10:26 | 10 |
| 13 |  Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 7:31 | 4 |
| 14 |  Terdu | 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 9:30 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.