Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hubei Istarvs
Jiangxi LushanThe model puts Jiangxi Lushan at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Jiangxi Lushan (1-2-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Hubei Istar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jiangxi Lushan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hubei Istar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Jiangxi Lushan is priced at 2.36.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Hubei Istar at 30%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Jiangxi Lushan at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Hubei Istar is priced at 3.01. The draw is priced at 2.89. Jiangxi Lushan is priced at 2.36.
Hubei Istar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Jiangxi Lushan have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Hubei Istar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Jiangxi Lushan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hubei Istar or Jiangxi Lushan?
Our model rates Jiangxi Lushan as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Hubei Istar wins, 2 draws, 2 Jiangxi Lushan wins.
League table
China. Second League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shanghai Port II | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 33:14 | 37 |
| 2 |  Shandong Taishan II | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 28:17 | 37 |
| 3 |  Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 26:15 | 33 |
| 4 |  Dalian Kewei | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 18:10 | 33 |
| 5 |  Taian Tiankuang | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 23:20 | 29 |
| 6 |  Dalian Yingbo II | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16:18 | 21 |
| 7 |  Haimen Codion | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20:20 | 21 |
| 8 |  Qingdao Red Lions | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20:17 | 21 |
| 9 |  Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9:14 | 18 |
| 10 |  Changchun Xidu | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 10:22 | 16 |
| 11 |  Shanghai Segenda | 19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 19:33 | 14 |
| 12 |  Beijing Institute of Technology | 18 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 13:35 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.