Costa do Sol vs Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Costa do Solvs
Clube Ferroviário de Nacala VelhaThe model puts Costa do Sol at 61%. The model leans toward Costa do Sol. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Costa do Sol.
- +The head-to-head record favours Costa do Sol (5-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Costa do Sol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Costa do Sol have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Costa do Sol is priced at 1.57.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Costa do Sol at 61%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Costa do Sol. Costa do Sol is priced at 1.57. The draw is priced at 3.18. Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha is priced at 6.64.
Costa do Sol have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Costa do Sol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Costa do Sol or Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha?
Our model rates Costa do Sol as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Costa do Sol vs Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Costa do Sol wins, 1 draws, 0 Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha wins.
League table
Mozambique Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Clube Ferroviário da Beira | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13:6 | 20 |
| 2 |  UD Songo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12:8 | 18 |
| 3 |  Black Bulls | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11:3 | 17 |
| 4 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nampula | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | 17 |
| 5 | Costa do Sol | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12:8 | 15 |
| 6 |  Ferroviario Lichinga | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 7 |  Liga Desportiva de Sofala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6:10 | 14 |
| 8 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6:5 | 13 |
| 9 |  Ferroviario Maputo | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5:5 | 11 |
| 10 |  Vilankulo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10:9 | 9 |
| 11 |  AD Pemba | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5:11 | 8 |
| 12 |  Baia de Pemba | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 13 |  Chingale de Tete | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2:10 | 7 |
| 14 |  Maxaquene | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4:11 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.