NEROCA vs Indian Navy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
NEROCAvs
Indian NavyThe model puts NEROCA at 55%. The model leans toward NEROCA. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- NEROCA have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Indian Navy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- NEROCA is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts NEROCA at 55%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Indian Navy at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward NEROCA. NEROCA is priced at 1.65. The draw is priced at 3.75. Indian Navy is priced at 4.375.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
NEROCA have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Indian Navy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, NEROCA or Indian Navy?
Our model rates NEROCA as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for NEROCA vs Indian Navy?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 NEROCA wins, 1 draws, 0 Indian Navy wins.
League table
India. Durand Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mohun Bagan Super Giant | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  East Bengal II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  South United Bangalore | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:8 | 3 |
| 4 |  CISF Protectors | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.