Lyon vs AC Sparta Prague: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lyonvs
AC Sparta PragueThe model puts Lyon at 59%. The model leans toward Lyon. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours AC Sparta Prague.
- −The head-to-head record favours AC Sparta Prague (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lyon have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AC Sparta Prague have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyon have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lyon is priced at 1.51.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lyon at 59%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts AC Sparta Prague at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Lyon. Lyon is priced at 1.51. The draw is priced at 4.48. AC Sparta Prague is priced at 6.
Lyon have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. AC Sparta Prague have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lyon have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. AC Sparta Prague have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lyon or AC Sparta Prague?
Our model rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lyon vs AC Sparta Prague?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Lyon wins, 1 draws, 4 AC Sparta Prague wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.