Celje vs Ararat - Armenia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Celjevs
Ararat - ArmeniaThe model puts Celje at 63%. The model leans toward Celje. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Ararat - Armenia.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Celje have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ararat - Armenia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celje have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Celje is priced at 1.456.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Celje at 63%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Ararat - Armenia at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Celje. Celje is priced at 1.456. The draw is priced at 4.52. Ararat - Armenia is priced at 6.85.
Celje have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Celje have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Ararat - Armenia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Celje or Ararat - Armenia?
Our model rates Celje as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Celje vs Ararat - Armenia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Celje wins, 0 draws, 0 Ararat - Armenia wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.