Sabah Baku vs AGF Aarhus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sabah Bakuvs
AGF AarhusThe model puts Sabah Baku at 46%. The model leans toward Sabah Baku. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sabah Baku.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sabah Baku have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AGF Aarhus have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sabah Baku have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sabah Baku is priced at 2.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sabah Baku at 46%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts AGF Aarhus at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sabah Baku. Sabah Baku is priced at 2.03. The draw is priced at 3.52. AGF Aarhus is priced at 3.62.
Sabah Baku have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Sabah Baku have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. AGF Aarhus have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. AGF Aarhus are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sabah Baku or AGF Aarhus?
Our model rates Sabah Baku as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sabah Baku vs AGF Aarhus?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Sabah Baku wins, 0 draws, 0 AGF Aarhus wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.