Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sturm Grazvs
FenerbahceThe model puts Fenerbahce at 52%. The model leans toward Fenerbahce. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Fenerbahce.
- −The head-to-head record favours Sturm Graz (2-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sturm Graz have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fenerbahce have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fenerbahce is priced at 1.864.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sturm Graz at 25%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Fenerbahce at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Fenerbahce. Sturm Graz is priced at 3.9. The draw is priced at 3.82. Fenerbahce is priced at 1.864.
Sturm Graz have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sturm Graz have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Fenerbahce have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sturm Graz or Fenerbahce?
Our model rates Fenerbahce as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Sturm Graz wins, 1 draws, 0 Fenerbahce wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.