Deportivo Toluca vs Los Angeles: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Tolucavs
Los AngelesThe model puts Deportivo Toluca at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Toluca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Toluca have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportivo Toluca is priced at 2.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 40%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Los Angeles at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Deportivo Toluca is priced at 2.33. The draw is priced at 3.55. Los Angeles is priced at 2.71.
Deportivo Toluca have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Los Angeles have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Toluca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Toluca are on 2 wins in a row. Los Angeles have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Toluca or Los Angeles?
Our model rates Deportivo Toluca as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Toluca vs Los Angeles?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Deportivo Toluca wins, 0 draws, 1 Los Angeles wins.
League table
North American. Leagues Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Juarez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Atlante | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Leon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 6 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Club Necaxa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Tijuana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Monterrey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 14 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 15 |  Pachuca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Pumas UNAM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.