A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo vs Union Brescia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
A.S.D. Atletico Arezzovs
Union BresciaThe model puts A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Union Brescia (0-2-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union Brescia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo is priced at 2.275.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo at 41%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Union Brescia at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo is priced at 2.275. The draw is priced at 3.52. Union Brescia is priced at 3.025.
Union Brescia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Union Brescia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo or Union Brescia?
Our model rates A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo vs Union Brescia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 0 A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo wins, 2 draws, 2 Union Brescia wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.