Twente vs PEC Zwolle: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Twentevs
PEC ZwolleThe model puts Twente at 76%. The model leans toward Twente. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Twente.
- +The head-to-head record favours Twente (8-4-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Twente have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Twente have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Twente is priced at 1.275.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Twente at 76%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts PEC Zwolle at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Twente. Twente is priced at 1.275. The draw is priced at 5.9. PEC Zwolle is priced at 10.
Twente have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. PEC Zwolle have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Twente have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. PEC Zwolle have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 30% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Twente or PEC Zwolle?
Our model rates Twente as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Twente vs PEC Zwolle?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Twente wins, 4 draws, 3 PEC Zwolle wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 | PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  N.E.C. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.