Philadelphia Union vs Club Necaxa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Philadelphia Unionvs
Club NecaxaThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 48%. The model leans toward Philadelphia Union. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Philadelphia Union.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Philadelphia Union have 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Club Necaxa have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Philadelphia Union is priced at 2.05.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Philadelphia Union at 48%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Club Necaxa at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union is priced at 2.05. The draw is priced at 3.9. Club Necaxa is priced at 3.055.
Philadelphia Union have 3 wins in their last 4 matches. Club Necaxa have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Philadelphia Union or Club Necaxa?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Club Necaxa?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
North American. Leagues Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Club America | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Juarez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Atlante | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Leon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 8 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Monterrey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 11 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Pachuca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 14 | Club Necaxa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Tijuana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Puebla | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 18 |  Pumas UNAM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.