Cruz Azul vs New York City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cruz Azulvs
New York CityThe model puts Cruz Azul at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Cruz Azul have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York City have 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Cruz Azul is priced at 2.24.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Cruz Azul at 42%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts New York City at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Cruz Azul is priced at 2.24. The draw is priced at 3.75. New York City is priced at 2.765.
Cruz Azul have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. New York City have 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 66% for both teams to score. The model gives 66% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cruz Azul or New York City?
Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cruz Azul vs New York City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
North American. Leagues Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Club America | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Juarez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Atlante | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Leon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 8 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Monterrey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 11 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Pachuca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Tijuana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Puebla | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 18 |  Pumas UNAM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.