Austin vs Puebla: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Austinvs
PueblaThe model puts Austin at 57%. The model leans toward Austin. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Austin.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Austin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puebla have 1 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Austin is priced at 1.7.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Austin at 57%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Puebla at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Austin. Austin is priced at 1.7. The draw is priced at 4.3. Puebla is priced at 3.975.
Austin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Puebla have 1 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Austin or Puebla?
Our model rates Austin as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Austin vs Puebla?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
League table
North American. Leagues Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Club America | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Juarez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Atlante | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Leon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 8 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Monterrey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 11 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 12 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 13 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Tijuana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Pachuca | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 16 | Puebla | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 17 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 18 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.