San Diego vs Tijuana: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Diegovs
TijuanaThe model puts San Diego at 51%. The model leans toward San Diego. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Tijuana.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- San Diego have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tijuana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Diego have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- San Diego is priced at 1.79.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts San Diego at 51%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Tijuana at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward San Diego. San Diego is priced at 1.79. The draw is priced at 4.1. Tijuana is priced at 3.69.
San Diego have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
San Diego have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Tijuana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Diego or Tijuana?
Our model rates San Diego as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Diego vs Tijuana?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 San Diego wins, 0 draws, 0 Tijuana wins.
League table
North American. Leagues Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juarez | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Tigres de la UANL | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Club America | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Atlante | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Leon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Monterrey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 11 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 12 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 13 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 14 | Tijuana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Pachuca | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 16 |  Puebla | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 17 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 18 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.