Canada vs Chile: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Canadavs
ChileThe model puts Canada at 55%. The model leans toward Canada. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Chile.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Canada have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chile have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Canada is priced at 1.69.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Canada at 55%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Chile at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Canada. Canada is priced at 1.69. The draw is priced at 3.74. Chile is priced at 5.1.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Canada have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Chile have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Canada or Chile?
Our model rates Canada as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Canada vs Chile?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Canada wins, 1 draws, 0 Chile wins.
League table
Friendlies. National Teams| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  China | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Curacao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.