Olympique de Marseille vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Olympique de Marseillevs
Atletico MadridThe model puts Atletico Madrid at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Olympique de Marseille.
- +The head-to-head record favours Atletico Madrid (0-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Olympique de Marseille have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid is priced at 2.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Olympique de Marseille at 35%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Atletico Madrid at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Olympique de Marseille is priced at 2.975. The draw is priced at 3.64. Atletico Madrid is priced at 2.26.
Atletico Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Olympique de Marseille have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Olympique de Marseille are on 3 wins in a row. Atletico Madrid have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Olympique de Marseille or Atletico Madrid?
Our model rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Olympique de Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Olympique de Marseille wins, 1 draws, 2 Atletico Madrid wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.