ADO Den Haag vs Groningen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
ADO Den Haagvs
GroningenThe model puts Groningen at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours ADO Den Haag.
- +The head-to-head record favours Groningen (4-3-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- ADO Den Haag have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Groningen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Groningen is priced at 2.445.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts ADO Den Haag at 33%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Groningen at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. ADO Den Haag is priced at 2.77. The draw is priced at 3.54. Groningen is priced at 2.445.
ADO Den Haag have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Groningen have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
ADO Den Haag have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Groningen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Groningen are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, ADO Den Haag or Groningen?
Our model rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 ADO Den Haag wins, 3 draws, 8 Groningen wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 |  PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  N.E.C. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.