Akron Tolyatti vs Krylia Sovetov: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Akron Tolyattivs
Krylia SovetovThe model puts Akron Tolyatti at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Akron Tolyatti.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Akron Tolyatti are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Akron Tolyatti have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Akron Tolyatti have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Akron Tolyatti will be without Zheleznov, Nedelcearu.
- Krylia Sovetov will be without charles G..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Akron Tolyatti at 38%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Krylia Sovetov at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Akron Tolyatti is priced at 2.63. The draw is priced at 3.38. Krylia Sovetov is priced at 2.65.
Akron Tolyatti have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Krylia Sovetov have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Akron Tolyatti have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Krylia Sovetov have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Akron Tolyatti average 1 goals per game this season. Akron Tolyatti average 57% possession. Krylia Sovetov average 1 goals per game this season. Krylia Sovetov average 39% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Akron Tolyatti or Krylia Sovetov?
Our model rates Akron Tolyatti as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Akron Tolyatti vs Krylia Sovetov?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 4 Akron Tolyatti wins, 1 draws, 4 Krylia Sovetov wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Akron Tolyatti
- 5Djurasovic
- 7Tavares
- 9Tedic
- 13Bardybakhin
- 15Loncar St.
- 19Bokoev
- 21Fernandez
- 22Maradishvili
- 26Escoval
- 69Dmitrijev
- 88Gudiyev
- Zheleznov (Questionable)
- Nedelcearu (Missing Player)
Krylia Sovetov
- 2Pechenin
- 5Oroz A.
- 7Banjac
- 8Vityugov M.
- 11Rahmanovic
- 15Rasskazov
- 19Oleynikov
- 22Costanza F.
- 30Pesyakov
- 47Bozhin
- 72Fernandez Da.
- charles G. (Missing Player)
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Krasnodar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 |  CSKA Moscow | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7:4 | 11 |
| 3 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:2 | 9 |
| 4 |  Spartak Moscow | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 5 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 7 |  Orenburg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:6 | 6 |
| 8 |  Akhmat | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:5 | 5 |
| 9 |  Rubin Kazan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 5 |
| 10 |  Rostov | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 5 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Moscow | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 12 |  Rodina Moscow | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 13 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 14 |  Fakel Voronezh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 15 | Krylia Sovetov | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 16 | Akron Tolyatti | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.