Russia. Premier League

Dynamo Makhachkala vs Krasnodar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Dynamo Makhachkalavs

Krasnodar

Our predictionKrasnodar to win

Model score: Low · 34/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Krasnodar at 44%. The model leans toward Krasnodar. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Dynamo Makhachkala.
−The head-to-head record favours Dynamo Makhachkala (5-1-0).
+Dynamo Makhachkala are dealing with notable absentees.
−Krasnodar are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Dynamo Makhachkala29%Draw27%2 · Krasnodar44%

1 · Dynamo MakhachkalaDraw2 · Krasnodar

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.96+30.7%

1X2Dynamo Makhachkala4.14+5.8%

1X2Draw3.17-2.8%

1X2Krasnodar2.02-3.0%

BTTSNo1.77-30.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Dynamo MakhachkalaWLWLL

KrasnodarLWLWL

Expected goals

1.95Dynamo Makhachkala

2.41Krasnodar

Over 2.5 goals81%

Both teams to score78%

Team strength rating

Dynamo Makhachkala

Krasnodar

Most likely scorelines

1-27.2%

2-27.1%

1-16.0%

2-15.8%

1-35.8%

2-35.7%

Match DNA

Dynamo Makhachkala Krasnodar

Key points

Dynamo Makhachkala have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Krasnodar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Dynamo Makhachkala have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Dynamo Makhachkala will be without Nikita Voronin, Shumakhov.
Krasnodar will be without Bachiessa, Krivtsov N..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Krasnodar win2.02Fair (-3.0%)

Double chanceKrasnodar or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	1	3	4	3	2
1	2	6	7	6	4	2
2	2	6	7	6	3	2
3	2	4	5	4	2	1
4		2	2	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Dynamo Makhachkala at 29%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Krasnodar at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market leans toward Krasnodar. Dynamo Makhachkala is priced at 4.14. The draw is priced at 3.165. Krasnodar is priced at 2.016.

Dynamo Makhachkala have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Dynamo Makhachkala have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Krasnodar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Dynamo Makhachkala average 2 goals per game this season. Dynamo Makhachkala average 40% possession. Krasnodar average 3 goals per game this season. Krasnodar average 54% possession.

The model gives 78% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Dynamo Makhachkala or Krasnodar?

Our model rates Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Dynamo Makhachkala vs Krasnodar?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 5 Dynamo Makhachkala wins, 1 draws, 0 Krasnodar wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 4.14 Draw 3.17 Away 2.02

Match statistics

Player of the matchGlushkovDynamo Makhachkala8.8