Spartak Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Spartak Moscowvs
Zenit Saint PetersburgThe model puts Spartak Moscow at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Spartak Moscow.
- +The head-to-head record favours Spartak Moscow (8-4-3).
- −Spartak Moscow are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Spartak Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Zenit Saint Petersburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Spartak Moscow have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Spartak Moscow will be without Barco Ez., Зорин, Martins.
- Spartak Moscow is priced at 2.72.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Spartak Moscow at 39%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Zenit Saint Petersburg at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Spartak Moscow is priced at 2.72. The draw is priced at 3.42. Zenit Saint Petersburg is priced at 2.54.
Spartak Moscow have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Zenit Saint Petersburg have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Spartak Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Zenit Saint Petersburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Spartak Moscow average 2 goals per game this season. Spartak Moscow average 61% possession. Zenit Saint Petersburg average 4 goals per game this season. Zenit Saint Petersburg average 59% possession.
The model gives 85% for both teams to score. The model gives 89% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Spartak Moscow or Zenit Saint Petersburg?
Our model rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg?
A scoreline around 3-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Spartak Moscow wins, 4 draws, 3 Zenit Saint Petersburg wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Spartak Moscow
- 1Pomazun
- 3Wooh C.
- 4Djiku
- 7Solari
- 9Ugalde
- 25Prutsev D.
- 27Dmitrijev
- 33Parada
- 47Zobnin
- 68Litvinov R.
- 97Denisov Da.
- Barco Ez. (Questionable)
- Зорин (Missing Player)
- Martins (Questionable)
Zenit Saint Petersburg
- 5Barrios W.
- 7Sobolev A
- 8Wendell M.
- 10Glushenkov
- 14Jhonatan dos Santos Rosa
- 16Adamov D.
- 20Pedrinho
- 31Mantuan
- 33Nino M.
- 66Vega
- 78Diveev
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Krasnodar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 |  CSKA Moscow | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7:4 | 11 |
| 3 | Zenit Saint Petersburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:2 | 9 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 5 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 7 |  Orenburg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:6 | 6 |
| 8 |  Akhmat | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:5 | 5 |
| 9 |  Rubin Kazan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 5 |
| 10 |  Rostov | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 5 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Moscow | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 12 |  Rodina Moscow | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 13 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 14 |  Fakel Voronezh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 15 |  Krylia Sovetov | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 16 |  Akron Tolyatti | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.