Hertha BSC vs 1. Heidenheim: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hertha BSCvs
1. HeidenheimThe model puts Hertha BSC at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +1. Heidenheim are dealing with notable absentees.
- +The head-to-head record favours Hertha BSC (3-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Hertha BSC have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Heidenheim have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Hertha BSC will be without Kristensen.
- 1. Heidenheim will be without Conteh S., Adam Kolle, Kaufmann M., Paqarada.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Hertha BSC at 43%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts 1. Heidenheim at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Hertha BSC is priced at 2.29. The draw is priced at 3.48. 1. Heidenheim is priced at 2.909.
Hertha BSC have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Hertha BSC have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. Heidenheim have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. Heidenheim are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hertha BSC or 1. Heidenheim?
Our model rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs 1. Heidenheim?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 3 Hertha BSC wins, 0 draws, 0 1. Heidenheim wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Hertha BSC
- 2Eitschberger
- 7Brekalo
- 8Sessa K.
- 17Gronning S.
- 22Winkler
- 27Kolbe
- 30Seguin
- 33Gouram
- 35Gersbeck
- 42Zeefuik
- 44Gechter
- Kristensen (Missing Player)
1. Heidenheim
- 1Feller F.
- 3Schoppner
- 4Siersleben T.
- 6Mainka
- 11Zivzivadze
- 17Honsak
- 18Pieringer
- 19Fohrenbach
- 21Beck
- 22Mhamdi
- 24Costly M.
- Conteh S. (Missing Player)
- Adam Kolle (Missing Player)
- Kaufmann M. (Questionable)
- Paqarada (Questionable)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Energie Cottbus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 4 | 1. Heidenheim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 5 |  Karlsruher | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 | Hertha BSC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Holstein | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 |  Darmstadt 98 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  Greuther Furth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  St. Pauli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 12 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 13 |  VfL Osnabruck | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 14 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  VfL Bochum | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Hannover 96 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Dynamo Dresden | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 18 |  1. Magdeburg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.