Cincinnati vs Atlas Guadalajara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cincinnativs
Atlas GuadalajaraThe model puts Cincinnati at 60%. The model leans toward Cincinnati. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Cincinnati.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Cincinnati have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cincinnati is priced at 1.6.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cincinnati at 60%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Atlas Guadalajara at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Cincinnati. Cincinnati is priced at 1.6. The draw is priced at 4.2. Atlas Guadalajara is priced at 4.75.
Cincinnati have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Cincinnati are on 3 wins in a row. Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 63% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cincinnati or Atlas Guadalajara?
Our model rates Cincinnati as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cincinnati vs Atlas Guadalajara?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
North American. Leagues Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Juarez | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Leon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Tigres de la UANL | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 4 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Toluca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  Atlante | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Guadalajara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 10 |  Pachuca | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 11 |  Tijuana | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Santos Laguna | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 13 | Atlas Guadalajara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 14 |  Club Necaxa | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:8 | 0 |
| 16 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
| 17 |  Queretaro | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
| 18 |  Puebla | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.