Barnsley vs Crewe Alexandra: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Barnsleyvs
Crewe AlexandraThe model puts Barnsley at 54%. The model leans toward Barnsley. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Crewe Alexandra.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Barnsley are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Barnsley have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Crewe Alexandra have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barnsley have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Barnsley will be without Yoganathan, Slicker, Smith, Farrell.
- Crewe Alexandra will be without Lawlor I..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Barnsley at 54%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Crewe Alexandra at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Barnsley. Barnsley is priced at 1.67. The draw is priced at 4.16. Crewe Alexandra is priced at 4.64.
Barnsley have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Crewe Alexandra have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Barnsley have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Crewe Alexandra have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Crewe Alexandra are on 3 wins in a row.
Barnsley average 1 goals per game this season. Barnsley average 60% possession. Crewe Alexandra average 2 goals per game this season. Crewe Alexandra average 50% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Barnsley or Crewe Alexandra?
Our model rates Barnsley as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Barnsley vs Crewe Alexandra?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Barnsley wins, 1 draws, 7 Crewe Alexandra wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.