Doncaster Rovers vs Middlesbrough: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Doncaster Roversvs
MiddlesbroughThe model puts Middlesbrough at 58%. The model leans toward Middlesbrough. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Middlesbrough.
- −The head-to-head record favours Doncaster Rovers (7-3-2).
- +Doncaster Rovers are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Middlesbrough are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Doncaster Rovers have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Doncaster Rovers have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Doncaster Rovers will be without Nickson, Okoronkwo, Pearson Ma., Husband J..
- Middlesbrough will be without Bangura Al., Conway, Strelec D..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Doncaster Rovers at 22%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Middlesbrough at 58%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Middlesbrough. Doncaster Rovers is priced at 5.15. The draw is priced at 4.22. Middlesbrough is priced at 1.605.
Doncaster Rovers have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Middlesbrough have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Doncaster Rovers have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Middlesbrough have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Doncaster Rovers average 1 goals per game this season. Doncaster Rovers average 27% possession. Middlesbrough average 1 goals per game this season. Middlesbrough average 49% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 35% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Doncaster Rovers or Middlesbrough?
Our model rates Middlesbrough as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Doncaster Rovers vs Middlesbrough?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 7 Doncaster Rovers wins, 3 draws, 2 Middlesbrough wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.