Southampton vs West Ham United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Southamptonvs
West Ham UnitedThe model puts Southampton at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours West Ham United.
- +The head-to-head record favours Southampton (8-4-3).
- +West Ham United are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Southampton have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- West Ham United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Southampton have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Southampton will be without Jander.
- West Ham United will be without Pablo, Soucek T..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Southampton at 43%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts West Ham United at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Southampton is priced at 2.488. The draw is priced at 3.68. West Ham United is priced at 2.632.
Southampton have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. West Ham United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Southampton have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. West Ham United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Southampton average 2 goals per game this season. Southampton average 74% possession. West Ham United average 3 goals per game this season. West Ham United average 45% possession.
The model gives 78% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Southampton or West Ham United?
Our model rates Southampton as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Southampton vs West Ham United?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Southampton wins, 4 draws, 3 West Ham United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.