Cambridge United vs Millwall: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cambridge Unitedvs
MillwallThe model puts Millwall at 46%. The model leans toward Millwall. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Millwall.
- +The head-to-head record favours Millwall (3-3-9).
- +Cambridge United are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Millwall are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cambridge United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Millwall have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cambridge United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cambridge United will be without Hoddle, Stead, Yahyai G..
- Millwall will be without Ivanovic, Azeez, Doughty A., Crama, Luongo, Mazou-Sacko, Servais.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cambridge United at 28%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Millwall at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Millwall. Cambridge United is priced at 3.32. The draw is priced at 3.28. Millwall is priced at 2.23.
Cambridge United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Millwall have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cambridge United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Millwall have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Millwall are on 4 wins in a row.
Cambridge United average 2 goals per game this season. Cambridge United average 51% possession. Millwall average 1 goals per game this season. Millwall average 44% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cambridge United or Millwall?
Our model rates Millwall as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Millwall?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Cambridge United wins, 3 draws, 9 Millwall wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.