Cardiff City vs Norwich City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cardiff Cityvs
Norwich CityThe model puts Norwich City at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Cardiff City (11-0-4).
- +Cardiff City are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Norwich City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Cardiff City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Norwich City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cardiff City have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cardiff City will be without Lawlor, Osho G., Fisch, Chambers C..
- Norwich City will be without Ahmed, Crnac, Mahovo, Makama, Gibbs.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cardiff City at 36%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Norwich City at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-3.
The market frames this as a close contest. Cardiff City is priced at 2.925. The draw is priced at 3.64. Norwich City is priced at 2.295.
Cardiff City have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Norwich City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Cardiff City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Norwich City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cardiff City average 3 goals per game this season. Cardiff City average 61% possession. Norwich City average 4 goals per game this season. Norwich City average 65% possession.
The model gives 90% for both teams to score. The model gives 93% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cardiff City or Norwich City?
Our model rates Norwich City as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cardiff City vs Norwich City?
A scoreline around 2-3 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 Cardiff City wins, 0 draws, 4 Norwich City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.