Watford vs Peterborough United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Watfordvs
Peterborough UnitedThe model puts Watford at 55%. The model leans toward Watford. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Watford are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Peterborough United are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Watford have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Peterborough United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Watford have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Watford will be without Grieves, Traore, Akomeah, Baah, Bola M., Ngakia.
- Peterborough United will be without Adebisi, Frith, Garbett, Hughes.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Watford at 55%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Peterborough United at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Watford. Watford is priced at 1.7. The draw is priced at 4.08. Peterborough United is priced at 4.54.
Watford have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Peterborough United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Watford have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Peterborough United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Watford average 1 goals per game this season. Watford average 61% possession. Peterborough United average 1 goals per game this season. Peterborough United average 54% possession.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Watford or Peterborough United?
Our model rates Watford as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Watford vs Peterborough United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 4 Watford wins, 2 draws, 4 Peterborough United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.