Stoke City vs Hull City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Stoke Cityvs
Hull CityThe model puts Hull City at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Hull City (5-1-9).
- +Stoke City are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Hull City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Stoke City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hull City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stoke City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Stoke City will be without Ampah, Sisse, Tchamadeu, Cresswell A., Stade Lavallois.
- Hull City will be without Hughes, Jacob, Zambrano, Butland, Gelhardt J., Gyabi, Coyle L., Matazo, Mendy, Morita.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Stoke City at 34%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Hull City at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Stoke City is priced at 2.835. The draw is priced at 3.192. Hull City is priced at 2.584.
Stoke City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Hull City have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Stoke City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Hull City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Stoke City average 2 goals per game this season. Stoke City average 60% possession.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 40% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Stoke City or Hull City?
Our model rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Hull City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Stoke City wins, 1 draws, 9 Hull City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Stoke City
- 0Johansson Vi.
- 0Bocat
- 0Gibson B.
- 0Taloverov
- 0Johnson B.
- 0Galbraith
- 0Pearson B.
- 0Thomas
- 0Rigo
- 0Manhoef
- 0Bozenik
- Ampah (Missing Player)
- Sisse (Questionable)
- Tchamadeu (Missing Player)
- Cresswell A. (Missing Player)
- Stade Lavallois (Questionable)
Hull City
- 0Tzolakis
- 0Targett
- 0Egan
- 0Ajayi Sem.
- 0Drame
- 0Crooks M.
- 0Gourna Douath
- 0Slater
- 0Millar L.
- 0McBurnie
- 0Belloumi
- Hughes (Missing Player)
- Jacob (Missing Player)
- Zambrano (Missing Player)
- Butland (Missing Player)
- Gelhardt J. (Missing Player)
- Gyabi (Missing Player)
- Coyle L. (Questionable)
- Matazo (Missing Player)
- Mendy (Questionable)
- Morita (Questionable)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.