Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportes Tolimavs
Independiente del ValleThe model puts Independiente del Valle at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Independiente del Valle.
- −Independiente del Valle are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportes Tolima have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportes Tolima have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportes Tolima will be without Mera I..
- Independiente del Valle will be without Arroyo, Casarez, Villar G..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportes Tolima at 32%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Independiente del Valle at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Deportes Tolima is priced at 2.98. The draw is priced at 3.18. Independiente del Valle is priced at 2.485.
Deportes Tolima have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportes Tolima have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Independiente del Valle have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Independiente del Valle are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportes Tolima or Independiente del Valle?
Our model rates Independiente del Valle as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Deportes Tolima wins, 1 draws, 0 Independiente del Valle wins.
Match statistics
Deportes Tolima
- 3Angulo
- 7Hurtado
- 10Sanchez Mosquera L.F.
- 13Ortega M.
- 14Martinez H.
- 18Flores
- 20Javier Hernandez
- 24Parra Osorio
- 32Guzman S.
- 33Mosquera
- 71Osorio Y.
- Mera I. (Missing Player)
Independiente del Valle
- 1Quintana Ald.
- 5Schunke
- 6Alcivar J.
- 10Sornoza
- 13Padilla
- 14Carabajal
- 17Rodriguez
- 19Loor
- 31Pata
- 50Angulo
- 55Guagua
- Arroyo (Missing Player)
- Casarez (Missing Player)
- Villar G. (Missing Player)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.