Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Levski Sofiavs
AEK AthensThe model puts AEK Athens at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Levski Sofia have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AEK Athens is priced at 2.515.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Levski Sofia at 33%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts AEK Athens at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Levski Sofia is priced at 2.975. The draw is priced at 3.136. AEK Athens is priced at 2.515.
Levski Sofia have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Levski Sofia are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 39% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Levski Sofia or AEK Athens?
Our model rates AEK Athens as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.