Fenerbahce vs Lyon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fenerbahcevs
LyonThe model puts Fenerbahce at 47%. The model leans toward Fenerbahce. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Fenerbahce.
- −The head-to-head record favours Lyon (0-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fenerbahce have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fenerbahce is priced at 2.1.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fenerbahce at 47%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Lyon at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce is priced at 2.1. The draw is priced at 3.56. Lyon is priced at 3.38.
Lyon have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fenerbahce have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Fenerbahce are on 2 wins in a row. Lyon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fenerbahce or Lyon?
Our model rates Fenerbahce as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fenerbahce vs Lyon?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Fenerbahce wins, 1 draws, 4 Lyon wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.