Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fleetwood Townvs
Shrewsbury TownThe model puts Fleetwood Town at 44%. The model leans toward Fleetwood Town. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Fleetwood Town are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Fleetwood Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Shrewsbury Town have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fleetwood Town will be without Coughlan R., Haughey, Thompson-Sommers.
- Shrewsbury Town will be without Price Jac..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fleetwood Town at 44%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Shrewsbury Town at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Fleetwood Town. Fleetwood Town is priced at 2.096. The draw is priced at 3.32. Shrewsbury Town is priced at 3.64.
Fleetwood Town have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Shrewsbury Town have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fleetwood Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Shrewsbury Town have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fleetwood Town average 1 goals per game this season. Fleetwood Town average 30% possession. Shrewsbury Town average 1 goals per game this season. Shrewsbury Town average 28% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fleetwood Town or Shrewsbury Town?
Our model rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury Town?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Fleetwood Town wins, 4 draws, 6 Shrewsbury Town wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.