Pisa vs Empoli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pisavs
EmpoliThe model puts Pisa at 49%. The model leans toward Pisa. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Empoli.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pisa have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Empoli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pisa have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pisa is priced at 1.83.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Pisa at 49%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Empoli at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Pisa. Pisa is priced at 1.83. The draw is priced at 3.4. Empoli is priced at 4.295.
Pisa have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Empoli have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Pisa have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Empoli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Empoli are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pisa or Empoli?
Our model rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pisa vs Empoli?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 4 Pisa wins, 1 draws, 3 Empoli wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.