Lazio vs Mantova: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Laziovs
MantovaThe model puts Lazio at 76%. The model leans toward Lazio. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lazio.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lazio have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mantova have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lazio have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lazio is priced at 1.245.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Lazio at 76%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Mantova at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Lazio. Lazio is priced at 1.245. The draw is priced at 5.72. Mantova is priced at 11.
Lazio have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Lazio have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Lazio are on 5 wins in a row. Mantova have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 29% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lazio or Mantova?
Our model rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lazio vs Mantova?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Lazio wins, 0 draws, 0 Mantova wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Lazio
- 5Doekhi
- 6Rovella
- 7Dele-Bashiru F.
- 10Zaccagni
- 19Dia
- 22Cancellieri
- 23Pedraza A.
- 24Taylor Ke.
- 25Provstgaard
- 35Mandas
- 77Marusic
Mantova
- 5Tomasevich
- 8Ilie
- 9Gliozzi
- 19Ruocco
- 21Trimboli S.
- 22Bardi Fr.
- 25Ignacchiti
- 27Castellini
- 29Челла
- 41Silva
- 50Benaissa-Yahia
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
No goals but plenty of bite: 2 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
Half-time score: Lazio 0 – 0 Mantova.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–0)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.