Citta di Palermo vs Lecce: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Citta di Palermovs
LecceThe model puts Citta di Palermo at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Lecce.
- +The head-to-head record favours Citta di Palermo (8-4-3).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Citta di Palermo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lecce have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Citta di Palermo have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Citta di Palermo is priced at 2.395.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Citta di Palermo at 40%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Lecce at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Citta di Palermo is priced at 2.395. The draw is priced at 3.2. Lecce is priced at 2.91.
Citta di Palermo have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Lecce have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Citta di Palermo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lecce have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lecce are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Citta di Palermo or Lecce?
Our model rates Citta di Palermo as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Citta di Palermo vs Lecce?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Citta di Palermo wins, 4 draws, 3 Lecce wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.