Friendlies. National Teams

South Korea vs Uruguay: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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South Koreavs

Uruguay

Our predictionSouth Korea to win

Model score: Medium · 54/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts South Korea at 45%. The model leans toward South Korea. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours South Korea.
+The head-to-head record favours South Korea (5-1-1).

Win probabilities

1 · South Korea45%

Draw27%

2 · Uruguay29%

1 · South KoreaDraw2 · Uruguay

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2South Korea2.35+4.4%

BTTSYes1.94+3.5%

1X2Draw3.30-2.1%

1X2Uruguay3.08-2.3%

BTTSNo1.77-3.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

South KoreaLWDDD

UruguayLLLLL

Team strength rating

South Korea

Uruguay

Most likely scorelines

1-111.9%

1-011.5%

2-19.5%

2-09.2%

0-17.5%

0-07.3%

Expected goals

1.59South Korea

1.03Uruguay

Over 2.5 goals49%

Both teams to score51%

Match DNA

South Korea Uruguay

Key points

South Korea have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Uruguay have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
South Korea have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
South Korea is priced at 2.35.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2South Korea win2.35Model edge (+4.4%)

Double chanceSouth Korea or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	8	4	1
1	12	12	6	2
2	9	9	5	2
3	5	5	3
4	2	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts South Korea at 45%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Uruguay at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. South Korea is priced at 2.35. The draw is priced at 3.3. Uruguay is priced at 3.08.

South Korea have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Uruguay have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

South Korea have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Uruguay have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

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