USA vs Chile: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
USAvs
ChileThe model puts USA at 60%. The model leans toward USA. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours USA.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- USA have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chile have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- USA have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- USA is priced at 1.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts USA at 60%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Chile at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward USA. USA is priced at 1.53. The draw is priced at 4.18. Chile is priced at 6.2.
USA have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Chile have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
USA have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Chile have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, USA or Chile?
Our model rates USA as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for USA vs Chile?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 USA wins, 2 draws, 1 Chile wins.
League table
Friendlies. National Teams| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  China | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Curacao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.