CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CF Montrealvs
Los Angeles GalaxyThe model puts CF Montreal at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Los Angeles Galaxy score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours CF Montreal (5-3-2).
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- CF Montreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CF Montreal have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CF Montreal is priced at 2.496.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts CF Montreal at 39%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. CF Montreal is priced at 2.496. The draw is priced at 3.64. Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 2.648.
CF Montreal have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Los Angeles Galaxy have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
CF Montreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles Galaxy have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
CF Montreal average 1 goals per game this season. CF Montreal average 45% possession. Los Angeles Galaxy average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles Galaxy average 50% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CF Montreal or Los Angeles Galaxy?
Our model rates CF Montreal as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 5 CF Montreal wins, 3 draws, 2 Los Angeles Galaxy wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.