Guadalajara vs Tijuana: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Guadalajaravs
TijuanaThe model puts Guadalajara at 66%. The model leans toward Guadalajara. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Guadalajara.
- +The head-to-head record favours Guadalajara (8-5-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tijuana have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guadalajara have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Guadalajara is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Guadalajara at 66%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Tijuana at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Guadalajara. Guadalajara is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 4.35. Tijuana is priced at 6.14.
Guadalajara have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Tijuana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Guadalajara are on 2 wins in a row. Tijuana have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Guadalajara or Tijuana?
Our model rates Guadalajara as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Guadalajara vs Tijuana?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Guadalajara wins, 5 draws, 2 Tijuana wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | 10 |
| 2 | Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Pumas UNAM | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 7 |  Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 9 | Guadalajara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 7 |
| 10 |  Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 11 |  Leon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:10 | 1 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.