Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Esporte Clube: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Flamengovs
Cruzeiro Esporte ClubeThe model puts Flamengo at 54%. The model leans toward Flamengo. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Cruzeiro Esporte Clube (2-3-10).
- −Flamengo are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Flamengo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Flamengo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Flamengo will be without Sandro, Silva Matos V., De La Cruz Arcosa, Everton S..
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube will be without Pec G., Aragao, Villarreal, Ramos Ca., Sinisterra L..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Flamengo at 54%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Flamengo. Flamengo is priced at 1.69. The draw is priced at 3.5. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 5.65.
Flamengo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Flamengo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Flamengo or Cruzeiro Esporte Clube?
Our model rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Esporte Clube?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Flamengo wins, 3 draws, 10 Cruzeiro Esporte Clube wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.