Puebla vs Santos Laguna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pueblavs
Santos LagunaThe model puts Puebla at 48%. The model leans toward Puebla. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Puebla.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Puebla are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Santos Laguna are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Puebla have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puebla have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Puebla will be without Maestro, Navarro.
- Santos Laguna will be without Di Yorio, Amione, Lozano A..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Puebla at 48%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Santos Laguna at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Puebla. Puebla is priced at 2.01. The draw is priced at 3.64. Santos Laguna is priced at 3.325.
Puebla have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Santos Laguna have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Puebla have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Puebla are on 2 wins in a row. Santos Laguna have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Puebla or Santos Laguna?
Our model rates Puebla as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Puebla vs Santos Laguna?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Puebla wins, 4 draws, 5 Santos Laguna wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Pumas UNAM | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 7 | Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Guadalajara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 7 |
| 10 |  Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 11 |  Leon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:10 | 1 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.