St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Louis Cityvs
Houston DynamoThe model puts St. Louis City at 50%. The model leans toward St. Louis City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +St. Louis City creates more chances (16 vs 14 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +St. Louis City controls more of the ball (51% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Louis City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Louis City is priced at 1.94.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Louis City at 50%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Houston Dynamo at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward St. Louis City. St. Louis City is priced at 1.94. The draw is priced at 3.74. Houston Dynamo is priced at 3.68.
St. Louis City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Houston Dynamo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Louis City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Houston Dynamo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Houston Dynamo are on 4 wins in a row.
St. Louis City average 2 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 51% possession. Houston Dynamo average 2 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 45% possession.
The model gives 66% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Louis City or Houston Dynamo?
Our model rates St. Louis City as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 4 St. Louis City wins, 2 draws, 3 Houston Dynamo wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 35 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 35:20 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 38:27 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27:25 | 29 |
| 6 |  Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30:26 | 28 |
| 7 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29:25 | 25 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | 25 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 11 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33:29 | 24 |
| 13 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24:30 | 22 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 18:48 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.