Vancouver Whitecaps vs Dallas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vancouver Whitecapsvs
DallasThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 63%. The model leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Vancouver Whitecaps score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Dallas (2-4-9).
- +Vancouver Whitecaps creates more chances (18 vs 13 shots per game).
- +Vancouver Whitecaps controls more of the ball (54% vs 42%).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dallas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.52.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 63%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Dallas at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.52. The draw is priced at 4.48. Dallas is priced at 5.75.
Vancouver Whitecaps have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Dallas have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Vancouver Whitecaps have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dallas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Vancouver Whitecaps average 3 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 54% possession. Dallas average 2 goals per game this season. Dallas average 42% possession.
The model gives 66% for both teams to score. The model gives 83% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vancouver Whitecaps or Dallas?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vancouver Whitecaps vs Dallas?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Vancouver Whitecaps wins, 4 draws, 9 Dallas wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 35:20 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 38:27 | 33 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27:25 | 29 |
| 6 |  Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30:26 | 28 |
| 7 | Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29:25 | 25 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | 25 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 11 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33:29 | 24 |
| 13 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24:30 | 22 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 18:48 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.